Often the simplest game is to avoid what did best the previous year, look at the subdued valuations of laggards and bet on a catch-up depending on the economic cycle. Rank underlying economic growth rates, factor in policy shifts and you're away. And after five years of stomach-churning global crises, the more conservative western money managers won't even think of leaving home without at least some basic 'security checks' - let alone set off for exotic new frontiers.
So the basis of most 2013 forecasts are the pretty critical assumptions that the euro won't collapse, the United States will dodge its looming "fiscal cliff" of tax and spending crunches, and that China's economy has averted a nosedive in growth. If none of that sounds an alarm, and you don't want to hunker down at home, then this year's tidal wave of central bank liquidity and money-printing from central banks in Washington, London, Frankfurt and Tokyo is waiting to be surfed.
Reuters global stock market polls yet again tell a story of BRIC rebirth. After two years in which the stock markets of the four emerging giants underperformed even those of bailed-out Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain - despite vastly superior economic growth rates - the old ploy of hoovering up what's been beaten down seems unshakeable. China's long-suffering Shanghai Composite - one of the few major bourses still in the red this year, down 25 per cent from early 2011 and still less than half its 2007 peak - is easily the favourite destination for money managers, with median forecast gains of 17 per cent.
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